mercredi 18 mars 2015
UK Budget 2015: Let's hope the Chancellor has one or two rabbits under his hat
Posted on 01:51 by nice news
It’s showtime for the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and the pressure could not be any higher. After five years in the job, George Osborne will be acutely aware that this could be his last Budget; he will therefore be doing all in his powers to maximise the Budget’s vote-garnering impact, seeking to reach out to key groups of voters while simultaneously embarrassing and undermining the Labour Party.
It is a miracle that the Coalition has lasted this long, and that both parties are still signing up to the Budget. But it also means that there is a big difference between what Mr Osborne the Chancellor can do, and what Mr Osborne the Tory in electioneering mood will want to promise. This will be a coalition Budget, not a Tory one, when it comes to the actual plans and documents - but the speech will very much be a Conservative one. The Chancellor knows he has a unique platform, and he will not be shy to at least allude to manifesto commitments, even when it comes to policies with which the Lib Dems disagree. The balancing act will be fascinating to watch. Budgets are always about political economy; for better or for worse, this one will focus on the politics, with economic reality as the sole, irritating constraint.
The big picture will be decent but far from perfect for the Chancellor. Growth of 2.6pc last year was the strongest since the heady, unsustainable days of 2006; the Chancellor will be hoping that the economy will grow more quickly this year than the 2.4pc currently pencilled in by the Office for Budget Responsibility. The deficit remains far too large and the Chancellor’s early pledges on this have long since been reneged upon. But the borrowing total is still likely to come in at up to £6bn less than previously feared in 2015-16, giving Mr Osborne room for manoeuvre. Whatever the actual figu
It is a miracle that the Coalition has lasted this long, and that both parties are still signing up to the Budget. But it also means that there is a big difference between what Mr Osborne the Chancellor can do, and what Mr Osborne the Tory in electioneering mood will want to promise. This will be a coalition Budget, not a Tory one, when it comes to the actual plans and documents - but the speech will very much be a Conservative one. The Chancellor knows he has a unique platform, and he will not be shy to at least allude to manifesto commitments, even when it comes to policies with which the Lib Dems disagree. The balancing act will be fascinating to watch. Budgets are always about political economy; for better or for worse, this one will focus on the politics, with economic reality as the sole, irritating constraint.
The big picture will be decent but far from perfect for the Chancellor. Growth of 2.6pc last year was the strongest since the heady, unsustainable days of 2006; the Chancellor will be hoping that the economy will grow more quickly this year than the 2.4pc currently pencilled in by the Office for Budget Responsibility. The deficit remains far too large and the Chancellor’s early pledges on this have long since been reneged upon. But the borrowing total is still likely to come in at up to £6bn less than previously feared in 2015-16, giving Mr Osborne room for manoeuvre. Whatever the actual figu
UK Budget 2015: Let's hope the Chancellor has one or two rabbits under his hat
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