dimanche 29 mars 2015
EUR/USD Squeeze Has Run Its Course; What's Next? - Goldman Sachs
Posted on 21:36 by nice news
The squeeze in EUR/USD has run its course as the rise since Mar. 15th looks like a near complete ABC, notes Goldman Sachs.
"An ABC is a counter-trend movement which, once complete, should ultimately signals that the underlying trend is likely to resume. In this case, if this is truly an ABC then EURUSD should be setting up to continue its decline. Initial resistance comes in at 1.1052-1.1099. This area includes two interim highs from Mar. 18th /26th and an interim low from Jan. 26th," GS adds.
Moreover, GS argues that as EUR/USD daily oscillators have held the top of its lowered range highs, this Coupled with the signals on the DXY which should add further confidence to the market’s ability to continue its previous downtrend.
"The bigger resistance level to be aware of is the 55-dma which is currently up at 1.1202. This particularly moving average has held two previous highs in July/December (the top of wave 2 and wave iv of 3). It’s also been above price action since the start of the decline at the May ’14 peak. If at any point that level did break, chances of the market basing would increase significantly," GS projects.
Bottom line, GS thinks the risk/reward looks better skewed to the downside as ultimately, the focus should be on 1.0286-1.0103.
"An ABC is a counter-trend movement which, once complete, should ultimately signals that the underlying trend is likely to resume. In this case, if this is truly an ABC then EURUSD should be setting up to continue its decline. Initial resistance comes in at 1.1052-1.1099. This area includes two interim highs from Mar. 18th /26th and an interim low from Jan. 26th," GS adds.
Moreover, GS argues that as EUR/USD daily oscillators have held the top of its lowered range highs, this Coupled with the signals on the DXY which should add further confidence to the market’s ability to continue its previous downtrend.
"The bigger resistance level to be aware of is the 55-dma which is currently up at 1.1202. This particularly moving average has held two previous highs in July/December (the top of wave 2 and wave iv of 3). It’s also been above price action since the start of the decline at the May ’14 peak. If at any point that level did break, chances of the market basing would increase significantly," GS projects.
Bottom line, GS thinks the risk/reward looks better skewed to the downside as ultimately, the focus should be on 1.0286-1.0103.
EUR/USD Squeeze Has Run Its Course; What's Next? - Goldman Sachs
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