vendredi 27 mars 2015
Week Ahead: NFP, Greece, Poor Liquidity, USD U-Turn, Long USD/CAD
Posted on 22:36 by nice news
After having stalled in recent weeks, the USD-rally seems to be regaining momentum yet again. Culminating in an update of US employment on Good Friday, next week’s data could help the USD consolidate some more.
That said, it will likely take evidence of both employment and wage gains for non-farm payrolls to have a sustained positive impact.
Poor market liquidity pre-Easter could also dampen market moves. Longer term, we still see risks for USD on the upside and we keep our long USD/CAD trade open.
Also next week, we expect more evidence that Eurozone deflation slowed further in March. Greece should also submit a reform proposal to unlock fresh funding. While potential Greek brinkmanship remains a risk, the combination of better data and abating sovereign risks should continue to highlight that investors are still short EUR.
Elsewhere, the 7 May UK elections are gaining some GBP traction. However, even if weekend polls show the anticipated electoral split, any negative GBP impact should not supersede still-solid domestic data.
In the periphery, heightened risk aversion should remain a tail-risk in the week ahead, leaving performance driven by the re-emergence of USD-funding concerns.
What we’re watching
USD: Will Good Friday NFPs help USD? NFP is usually the highlight of the calendar week, triggering sharp moves across G10 FX. Next week’s release falls on Good Friday, however, and that should diminish its market impact.
EUR: Eurozone CPI and Greece risks. Eurozone’s preliminary HICP print for March will dominate data releases next week.
GBP: Pre-election political pressures overdone. While investors are refocussing their attention on UK politics we are not convinced this theme will become the dominant GBP factor in the week ahead. (for more details, see more here)
CHF: Are safe-haven pressures returning? As the latest February reserves
That said, it will likely take evidence of both employment and wage gains for non-farm payrolls to have a sustained positive impact.
Poor market liquidity pre-Easter could also dampen market moves. Longer term, we still see risks for USD on the upside and we keep our long USD/CAD trade open.
Also next week, we expect more evidence that Eurozone deflation slowed further in March. Greece should also submit a reform proposal to unlock fresh funding. While potential Greek brinkmanship remains a risk, the combination of better data and abating sovereign risks should continue to highlight that investors are still short EUR.
Elsewhere, the 7 May UK elections are gaining some GBP traction. However, even if weekend polls show the anticipated electoral split, any negative GBP impact should not supersede still-solid domestic data.
In the periphery, heightened risk aversion should remain a tail-risk in the week ahead, leaving performance driven by the re-emergence of USD-funding concerns.
What we’re watching
USD: Will Good Friday NFPs help USD? NFP is usually the highlight of the calendar week, triggering sharp moves across G10 FX. Next week’s release falls on Good Friday, however, and that should diminish its market impact.
EUR: Eurozone CPI and Greece risks. Eurozone’s preliminary HICP print for March will dominate data releases next week.
GBP: Pre-election political pressures overdone. While investors are refocussing their attention on UK politics we are not convinced this theme will become the dominant GBP factor in the week ahead. (for more details, see more here)
CHF: Are safe-haven pressures returning? As the latest February reserves
Week Ahead: NFP, Greece, Poor Liquidity, USD U-Turn, Long USD/CAD
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