mardi 17 mars 2015
The threat of Greece exiting the eurozone looms large
Posted on 12:07 by nice news
With hefty debt payments looming, a shrinking economy and political tensions, Greece is far from out of the ‘Grexit’ woods yet, Morgan Stanley analyst said on Tuesday.
“Contrary to many commentators, we don’t think that the probability of a euro exit has diminished. While we’d still put it at one chance in four over the next six months, it feels as if we’re at the high end the range, and its probability may increase further,” they said in a note.
And if it does happen, it would have consequences for the eurozone, according to the investment bank. The gross domestic product for 2015 could slip by 0.2%, compared with the expected 1% growth if the currency union stays in its current form. The euro EURUSD, +0.22% might slide to as low as $0.82, around the weakest level ever for the shared currency. And the fair value for European equities would fall by around 10%.
“Contrary to many commentators, we don’t think that the probability of a euro exit has diminished. While we’d still put it at one chance in four over the next six months, it feels as if we’re at the high end the range, and its probability may increase further,” they said in a note.
And if it does happen, it would have consequences for the eurozone, according to the investment bank. The gross domestic product for 2015 could slip by 0.2%, compared with the expected 1% growth if the currency union stays in its current form. The euro EURUSD, +0.22% might slide to as low as $0.82, around the weakest level ever for the shared currency. And the fair value for European equities would fall by around 10%.
The threat of Greece exiting the eurozone looms large
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