mardi 24 mars 2015

AUD/USD: has the Aussie bottomed out?

The US dollar is falling for a third consecutive session in the aftermath of the FOMC’s surprisingly dovish statement last week. As well as the pound and euro regaining some lost ground, the commodity currencies have also fared well, not least because the weaker dollar has given the underlying oil and metal prices a much-needed boost. But the level of interest rates in the likes of New Zealand (3.5%) and Australia (2.25%) are also much higher compared to the US (less than 0.25%). Indeed, such has been the strength of the AUD and NZD rally that the market has completely ignored another piece of soft Chinese data overnight: the latest HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI for China slipped to an 11-month low of 49.2 vs. 50.5 expected and 50.7 in February. If the market is able to shrug off a weak number like it has then this is a sign of a strong bullish trend. However we do have the US CPI coming up at 12:30 BST and this has the potential to cause a major move in the FX markets. A much stronger than expected reading of +0.2% for the month of February could see the dollar surge higher, while a number in the negative territory could deliver the final nail in the coffin for the buck.




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AUD/USD: has the Aussie bottomed out?

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