mercredi 8 avril 2015
What To Expect From FOMC Minutes? - Views From 17 Major Banks
Posted on 06:38 by nice news
The following are the expectations for today's FOMC minutes from the March meeting as provided by the economists at 17 major banks along with some thoughts on the USD into the event as provided by the FX strategists at these banks.
Goldman Sachs: Taken together, the March FOMC statement, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and Chair's press conference were more dovish than expected. For the minutes, we will be watching for any discussion (1) on the timing of liftoff, (2) on what qualifies as "reasonably confident", (3) on the weakness in exports and US growth, (4) on labor market slack and the lowered estimate of long-run unemployment in the SEP, and (5) on the mechanics of liftoff.
Credit Suisse: The most interesting aspects of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting minutes probably will have little to do with "patience" and more to do with 1) the effect of the stronger dollar on domestic growth, 2) the likely contours of the upcoming tightening cycle, and 3) the operational readiness of the Fed's exit strategy tools. Along with lowering their "dots," FOMC participants at that meeting lowered their real GDP growth forecasts for 2015- 2017, no doubt also partly due to the rising dollar. Given that the FOMC minutes being released today are from a meeting that preceded the March jobs report, the rates market is more likely to be willing to overlook any elements that come across as hawkish. We believe that the market will have a somewhat asymmetric approach, likely overweighting more dovish language in light of the soft labor market data. Likewise, we think in FX space the USD is more likely to react to dovish headlines than to hawkish language. In the light of last week’s poor payroll surprise, we think some consolidation is likely, especially in vol space.
ING: Today's sees the release of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting minutes – a meeting which
Goldman Sachs: Taken together, the March FOMC statement, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and Chair's press conference were more dovish than expected. For the minutes, we will be watching for any discussion (1) on the timing of liftoff, (2) on what qualifies as "reasonably confident", (3) on the weakness in exports and US growth, (4) on labor market slack and the lowered estimate of long-run unemployment in the SEP, and (5) on the mechanics of liftoff.
Credit Suisse: The most interesting aspects of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting minutes probably will have little to do with "patience" and more to do with 1) the effect of the stronger dollar on domestic growth, 2) the likely contours of the upcoming tightening cycle, and 3) the operational readiness of the Fed's exit strategy tools. Along with lowering their "dots," FOMC participants at that meeting lowered their real GDP growth forecasts for 2015- 2017, no doubt also partly due to the rising dollar. Given that the FOMC minutes being released today are from a meeting that preceded the March jobs report, the rates market is more likely to be willing to overlook any elements that come across as hawkish. We believe that the market will have a somewhat asymmetric approach, likely overweighting more dovish language in light of the soft labor market data. Likewise, we think in FX space the USD is more likely to react to dovish headlines than to hawkish language. In the light of last week’s poor payroll surprise, we think some consolidation is likely, especially in vol space.
ING: Today's sees the release of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting minutes – a meeting which
What To Expect From FOMC Minutes? - Views From 17 Major Banks
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