mardi 14 avril 2015
IMF Survey: Uneven Global Recovery, Complex Underlying Currents
Posted on 06:22 by nice news
Global growth prospects are uneven across major economies, says the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO). In advanced economies, growth is projected to strengthen in 2015 relative to 2014, but in emerging market and developing economies it is expected to be weaker.
Overall, global growth is forecast at 3.5 percent in 2015 and 3.8 percent in 2016, broadly the same as last year. But this aggregate number masks the diverse developments (see table).
“A number of complex forces are shaping the prospects around the world,” says Olivier Blanchard, IMF Economic Counselor and Director of Research. “Legacies of both the financial and the euro area crises—weak banks and high levels of public, corporate, and household debt—are still weighing on spending and growth in some countries. Low growth in turn makes deleveraging a slow process.”
Blanchard also notes that the combination of population aging, lower investment, and sluggish advances in productivity will lead to significantly lower potential growth both in advanced and emerging market economies. “More subdued growth prospects lead, in turn, to lower spending and lower growth today,” he says.
On top of these underlying forces, two major factors, both with major distributional implications, dominate the current scene: the decline in the price of oil and exchange rate movements.
“Large movements in relative prices, whether exchange rates or the price of oil, creates winners and losers,” says Blanchard.
Overall, global growth is forecast at 3.5 percent in 2015 and 3.8 percent in 2016, broadly the same as last year. But this aggregate number masks the diverse developments (see table).
“A number of complex forces are shaping the prospects around the world,” says Olivier Blanchard, IMF Economic Counselor and Director of Research. “Legacies of both the financial and the euro area crises—weak banks and high levels of public, corporate, and household debt—are still weighing on spending and growth in some countries. Low growth in turn makes deleveraging a slow process.”
Blanchard also notes that the combination of population aging, lower investment, and sluggish advances in productivity will lead to significantly lower potential growth both in advanced and emerging market economies. “More subdued growth prospects lead, in turn, to lower spending and lower growth today,” he says.
On top of these underlying forces, two major factors, both with major distributional implications, dominate the current scene: the decline in the price of oil and exchange rate movements.
“Large movements in relative prices, whether exchange rates or the price of oil, creates winners and losers,” says Blanchard.
IMF Survey: Uneven Global Recovery, Complex Underlying Currents
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