jeudi 16 avril 2015

This isn’t the oil rally you’re looking for

You’re going to have to wait, if you’re looking for a genuine rebound in the oil futures market.



Oil’s latest rally has spurred fantasies of a shift toward a price recovery, but analysts don’t expect these gains to last.



On Thursday, futures prices for crude oil CLK5, +0.30% traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange tallied a six-session gain of more than 12% to finish at $56.71 a barrel — the highest settlement of the year so far.



They jumped 5.8% on Wednesday alone after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an increase in crude supplies was less than half what the market expected. The smaller-than-expected supply build was the “catalyst” needed to propel futures up through the resistance level of $55 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude, analyst Tyler Richey wrote in Thursday’s 7:00s Report.



Following the price rally, the “near-term benefit of the doubt is with the bulls,” he said, with the initial upside target sitting between $62.25 and $63 a barrel.



That would mark some progress toward a recovery for Nymex oil prices, but they have a long way to go after having been nearly halved from about $105 a barrel in July of last year.



Read: BP CEO warns oil could stay low for several years



Karim Rahemtulla, chief resource analyst at Wall Street Daily, said that the oil-price fall was “so quick and dramatic, it might have been overd




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This isn’t the oil rally you’re looking for

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