vendredi 3 avril 2015
What To Expect From NFP? - Views From 20 Major Banks
Posted on 06:37 by nice news
The following are the expectations for today's US March jobs report as provided by the economists at 20 major banks along with some strategies to trade the USD into the event as provided by the FX strategists at these banks.
Morgan Stanley: Friday’s release of the US March labour market report will have even greater market significance after Fed Chair Yellen placed the importance of labour market strength over short-term inflationary expectations last Friday. Markets might assume that a June rate lift could materialise if the next two NFPs come in strong (Our US economists expect a below-consensus 195k NFP this week). Indeed, over recent weeks USD has increasingly traded in response to US rate expectations, drifting away from the previous pattern of currency moves determined by relative nominal GDP growth differentials. …and what it means for markets: This emphasis on relative rate expectations has an important side effect, namely USD is no longer trading as an asset currency. Only a few weeks ago the relationship between the performance of USD and risky assets was strongly positively correlated, but this correlation has collapsed over recent weeks.
Goldman: We expect nonfarm payroll job growth of 220k in March below the consensus forecast of 245k...We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.5%
SEB: Our forecasts are for 240k total employment growth, 230k private employment growth, 5.4 percent unemployment rate and 0.2 percent average hourly earnings.
Deutsche Bank: DB expects the March nonfarm payrolls to rise to 225k, which is down from February’s outsized 295k increase, and expects the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.5%. For the FX market the data will say a lot about whether the USD bullish impetus can ‘naturally’ segue from an ECB, BOJ, soft commodities drivers to a Fed led story. That’s why it is massive.
Morgan Stanley: Friday’s release of the US March labour market report will have even greater market significance after Fed Chair Yellen placed the importance of labour market strength over short-term inflationary expectations last Friday. Markets might assume that a June rate lift could materialise if the next two NFPs come in strong (Our US economists expect a below-consensus 195k NFP this week). Indeed, over recent weeks USD has increasingly traded in response to US rate expectations, drifting away from the previous pattern of currency moves determined by relative nominal GDP growth differentials. …and what it means for markets: This emphasis on relative rate expectations has an important side effect, namely USD is no longer trading as an asset currency. Only a few weeks ago the relationship between the performance of USD and risky assets was strongly positively correlated, but this correlation has collapsed over recent weeks.
Goldman: We expect nonfarm payroll job growth of 220k in March below the consensus forecast of 245k...We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.5%
SEB: Our forecasts are for 240k total employment growth, 230k private employment growth, 5.4 percent unemployment rate and 0.2 percent average hourly earnings.
Deutsche Bank: DB expects the March nonfarm payrolls to rise to 225k, which is down from February’s outsized 295k increase, and expects the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.5%. For the FX market the data will say a lot about whether the USD bullish impetus can ‘naturally’ segue from an ECB, BOJ, soft commodities drivers to a Fed led story. That’s why it is massive.
What To Expect From NFP? - Views From 20 Major Banks
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