mercredi 1 avril 2015
RBA rate cut on the way, experts say
Posted on 20:21 by nice news
APRIL or May? Either way, borrowers may soon get a nice boost to their bank balances with the central bank set to slash interest rates to a new record low.
MARKET pricing for an April rate cut ramped up this week, after the price of iron ore, Australia's biggest export, slumped to new record lows.
Overnight, iron ore fell below $US50. Iron ore for immediate delivery to the port of Tianjin in China fell to $US49 a tonne, from $US51, while at the port of Qingdao it was $US49.53.
Media reports this week also predicted an April cut, amid suggestions some journalists had received backdoor briefings by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The market is pricing in a more than 70 per cent chance that the RBA board will cut the cash rate from 2.25 per cent to two per cent when it meets on Tuesday.
It has fully priced in a cut by May.
And while the economists are divided on which month it'll happen, all 20 surveyed by AAP expect an official interest rate of two per cent by May.
Barclays chief economist Kieran Davies brought forward his rate cut forecast from May to April, citing the Australian dollar's failure to fall as dramatically as the iron ore price.
While RBA governor Glenn Stevens has previously put fair value for the Aussie dollar at around 75 US cents, it was probably even lower now that iron ore prices had deteriorated further, he said.
"With commodities slumping again and the currency only partly reflecting that, you've got a gap opening up again between the currency and the terms of trade and I think that's been a persistent source of frustration for the RBA," Mr Davies said.
TD Securities chief Asia-Pacific macro strategist Annette Beacher said it would be more prudent for the RBA to hold fire until May, when March quarter inflation figures will have been released.
It would also give the RBA more time to assess whether measures by regulators to curb property investor activity were actually working, as
MARKET pricing for an April rate cut ramped up this week, after the price of iron ore, Australia's biggest export, slumped to new record lows.
Overnight, iron ore fell below $US50. Iron ore for immediate delivery to the port of Tianjin in China fell to $US49 a tonne, from $US51, while at the port of Qingdao it was $US49.53.
Media reports this week also predicted an April cut, amid suggestions some journalists had received backdoor briefings by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The market is pricing in a more than 70 per cent chance that the RBA board will cut the cash rate from 2.25 per cent to two per cent when it meets on Tuesday.
It has fully priced in a cut by May.
And while the economists are divided on which month it'll happen, all 20 surveyed by AAP expect an official interest rate of two per cent by May.
Barclays chief economist Kieran Davies brought forward his rate cut forecast from May to April, citing the Australian dollar's failure to fall as dramatically as the iron ore price.
While RBA governor Glenn Stevens has previously put fair value for the Aussie dollar at around 75 US cents, it was probably even lower now that iron ore prices had deteriorated further, he said.
"With commodities slumping again and the currency only partly reflecting that, you've got a gap opening up again between the currency and the terms of trade and I think that's been a persistent source of frustration for the RBA," Mr Davies said.
TD Securities chief Asia-Pacific macro strategist Annette Beacher said it would be more prudent for the RBA to hold fire until May, when March quarter inflation figures will have been released.
It would also give the RBA more time to assess whether measures by regulators to curb property investor activity were actually working, as
RBA rate cut on the way, experts say
Categories: experts say, RBA rate cut on the way
Inscription à :
Publier les commentaires (Atom)
0 commentaires:
Enregistrer un commentaire