dimanche 12 avril 2015
Statistical Analysis of TZs
Posted on 07:22 by nice news
This thread contains the results of some research I've been doing with TZs (Transient Zones). What are TZs? They are zones of consecutive prices within a bar which aren't touched within a certain number of bars to the left and right of the TZ bar. They might also be called pivots, fractals, spikes, supply/demand areas, resistance/support areas, breakouts, and so on. But for the purposes of this thread let's call them TZs.
I'll assume that you already have an understanding of TZs and their nomenclature (h, k, transience, recurrence, etc.). If you don't then I recommend reading the start of this thread, which was kindly created by vlady1974.
The purpose of this thread is to prove the effectiveness, or ineffectiveness, of TZ systems in the most unequivocal way possible, using the statistical analysis of past data. Hence all probabilities shown are empirical, not theoretical. I encourage other people to post their results in a similar way. And I discourage people from posting opinions about TZs without having the figures to back them up. Personally I’m not biased towards TZ systems either way. I’m only interested in the edge they might provide. And if a particular system offers no discernable edge, then I won’t be using it.
At the moment, I'm still undecided about whether to post any of my programs that produce these figures. There are many reasons for and against this. Currently I'm more in the “against” camp. It could be argued that posting results without the code is meaningless and untrustworthy, but I suppose that if anyone feels strongly enough about the results and the systems then they should write their own programs and/or analyse their own charts to prove or disprove them. That's what I would do anyway, rather than relying on someone else blindly.
Unfortunately, like many of us here, my online time is very limited so please bear with me. There may be lengthy gaps between posts if something comes up. Also, if you have any questions or comments I’d be grateful if you could ask them here rather than in PMs. Thanks.
I'll assume that you already have an understanding of TZs and their nomenclature (h, k, transience, recurrence, etc.). If you don't then I recommend reading the start of this thread, which was kindly created by vlady1974.
The purpose of this thread is to prove the effectiveness, or ineffectiveness, of TZ systems in the most unequivocal way possible, using the statistical analysis of past data. Hence all probabilities shown are empirical, not theoretical. I encourage other people to post their results in a similar way. And I discourage people from posting opinions about TZs without having the figures to back them up. Personally I’m not biased towards TZ systems either way. I’m only interested in the edge they might provide. And if a particular system offers no discernable edge, then I won’t be using it.
At the moment, I'm still undecided about whether to post any of my programs that produce these figures. There are many reasons for and against this. Currently I'm more in the “against” camp. It could be argued that posting results without the code is meaningless and untrustworthy, but I suppose that if anyone feels strongly enough about the results and the systems then they should write their own programs and/or analyse their own charts to prove or disprove them. That's what I would do anyway, rather than relying on someone else blindly.
Unfortunately, like many of us here, my online time is very limited so please bear with me. There may be lengthy gaps between posts if something comes up. Also, if you have any questions or comments I’d be grateful if you could ask them here rather than in PMs. Thanks.
Statistical Analysis of TZs
Categories: Statistical Analysis of TZs
Inscription à :
Publier les commentaires (Atom)
0 commentaires:
Enregistrer un commentaire