mercredi 1 avril 2015

Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge

Melbourne

Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge

remained flat

in February, following a 0.1 per

cent rise in January. In the twelve months to February, the Inflation Gauge increased by 1.3 per cent, following a

1.5 per cent rise for the twelve months to January.

Contri

buting to the overall change in February were price rises for automotive fuel (+4.7 per cent), utilities (+0.8

per cent), and insurance (+1.1 per cent). These were offset by falls in fruit and vegetables (

-

5.3 per cent), holiday

travel and accommodation (

-

3.0 per cent) and newspapers, books and stationery (

-

1.2 per cent).

The trimmed mean of the Inflation Gauge rose by 0.2 per cent in February, after posting an increase of 0.3 per

cent in January

According to Annette Beacher, Head of Asia

-

Pacific Research

at TD Securities, “

Using mid quarter prices now

available, our inflation gauge measure showed

mixed

price pressures.

Our Inflation Gauge rose by 0.1 per cent in

the March quarter, while in contrast our trimmed mean measure rose by a sharper 0.6 per cent b

etween

November and February. Indeed a two speed story could be unfolding

here

where we observed a 1.2 per cent

decline in

tradable

inflation against a 1 per cent pick up in non

-

tradable inflation

.



While we will publish our final forecasts for the official A

BS March quarter CPI with our March Inflation Gauge

report released later this month, inflation pressures remain

relatively

benign at the moment

which should be

supportive for the RBA to cut rates further in this cycle.”



For the RBA Board meeting tomorr

ow, we expect Board members to

signal a move to an explicit easing bias

and to offer easier policy to support demand should that prove necessary. While we favour another couple of

months of ‘pause a

Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge

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