vendredi 10 avril 2015

Forex Weekly Outlook Apr. 13-17

The US dollar managed to stage a recovery after the previous blows, especially against the majors. A busy week awaits traders with US inflation and consumer data as well as rate decisions in Canada and the euro-zone among other events. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week.



US data began recovering and the dollar followed. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was OK and JOLTs beat expectations. But it was the meeting minutes that provided the greenback with the biggest push: they revealed that in March, some members talked about hiking in June. Despite the known fact about the existence of hawks and the timing of the meeting before the weak NFP, the greenback soared. It probably remains the cleanest shirt in the dirty pile. Elsewhere, Greek worries weighed on the euro, elections worries hurt the pound and the yen also slid. The Aussie stood out, enjoying yet another "no change" decision by the RBA.



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UK CPI: Tuesday, 8:30. Inflation in the UK reached a flat 0% in February, a figure that alarmed many. Will Britain enter deflation? This could push back any potential rate hike for even longer and also cast its shadow on the euro-zone. Official expectations stand on another 0% read y/y.

US Retail Sales: Tuesday, 12:30. For a third consecutive time, retail sales squeezed and disappointed. The fall of 0.6% in February will likely be followed by a bounce in March of 1.1%. Also core sales have followed the same pattern with a drop of 0.1% in February. Also here, a bounce is on the cards: +0.7%.

US PPI: Tuesday, 12:30. Producer prices serve as a warm up to consumer prices. After a drop of 0.5% in both headline and core figures in February, rises are expected in both, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, especially as oil prices have stabilized.

Chinese GDP: Wednesday, 2:00. The world's No. 2 economy has grown at a pace of 7.3% in Q4 2014 and is expected to experience

Forex Weekly Outlook Apr. 13-17

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