samedi 11 avril 2015

Can't Keep a Good Buck Down

The US dollar turned in an unexpectedly strong performance last week. It appreciated against all the major currencies, but the Australian dollar, and most of the emerging market currencies. Fundamental considerations after the disappointing March US employment report coupled with technical indicators favored a softer dollar. Instead, the dollar had one of its best week's of the year.



The Dollar Index rose almost 2.8% on the week, retracing the bulk of the decline since the multi-year high was recorded on March 13. Technically, it appears that the Dollar Index has carved out a double bottom around 96.20-30. The neck line was set 98.75, which was cut through like a hot knife and butter. The measuring objective is found near 102.25. Note that the 101.80 area is the 61.8% retracement of the bear market off the July 2001 high. The five-day average crossed above the 20-day average at the end of the week. The RSI has turned up, and the MACDs are cross higher from five-month lows.



The euro broke down to about $1.0570 after testing the $1.1035 area at the start of the week. Widening interest rate differentials took a toll. Constructive JOLTS data and the new cyclical low in weekly initial jobless claims encouraged the not putting too much weight on the softer than expected national jobs report. A Wall Street showed 83% of the 60 analysts/economists surveyed still expect the Fed to raise rates in June or September. Last month's survey had it at 86%. Essentially there was a shift from June to September. The euro's recent low was set just before last month's FOMC meeting near $1.0460, but it is difficult to talk about meaningful support until closer to $1.00. The MACDs have crossed loser, and the five-day average is crossing below the 20-day.



The yen lost 1% against the dollar last week, but the technical signals are not very compelling. The dollar rose briefly above the JPY120.60 retracement area




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Can't Keep a Good Buck Down

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