dimanche 12 avril 2015
Can China Ever Expect to Resume its Historic Growth Trajectory?
Posted on 15:21 by nice news
China saw a 9.8 percent growth rate on average during 1978–2010 — the best in the world. China will likely surpass the US to become the world’s largest economy in purchasing power terms in 2015, if it has not already done so.
So how long can the boom last? China’s economic growth has been slowing down considerably. Forecasting economic growth into the future is an inexact science. Simply extrapolating past trends is unlikely to give accurate predictions, especially if it does not take into account the different stages of development through which economies move. Studies that take account of ‘catchup’ growth and benchmark China to the experience of other East Asian nations suggest that China still has the potential to grow quickly. This sort of analysis does not allow us to examine the deeper structural factors that influence the growth rate.
In China’s case, one must consider the specifics of the demographic transition now underway. For instance, if we use the peak working-age population and the turning point of the dependency ratio (which measures how many non-working-age people there are for every working-age person) as a benchmark, China is where Japan was in the early 1990s. Thereafter, Japan’s annual average GDP growth has been less than 1 percent.
So how long can the boom last? China’s economic growth has been slowing down considerably. Forecasting economic growth into the future is an inexact science. Simply extrapolating past trends is unlikely to give accurate predictions, especially if it does not take into account the different stages of development through which economies move. Studies that take account of ‘catchup’ growth and benchmark China to the experience of other East Asian nations suggest that China still has the potential to grow quickly. This sort of analysis does not allow us to examine the deeper structural factors that influence the growth rate.
In China’s case, one must consider the specifics of the demographic transition now underway. For instance, if we use the peak working-age population and the turning point of the dependency ratio (which measures how many non-working-age people there are for every working-age person) as a benchmark, China is where Japan was in the early 1990s. Thereafter, Japan’s annual average GDP growth has been less than 1 percent.
Can China Ever Expect to Resume its Historic Growth Trajectory?
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