samedi 21 février 2015
Week Ahead: Yellen Testimony, China PMI, Sell EUR Rallies, Buy GBP
Posted on 09:07 by nice news
While the Eurozone has again stepped back from the precipice investors should not expect a substantial EUR relief rally this week.
Greek solvency problems may have been postponed, but its liquidity concerns remain intact. Uncertainty surrounding peripheral Europe will continue and investor outflows persist – albeit at a slower pace than in previous weeks.
Moreover, while latest FOMC Minutes appeared to defer the Fed’s 2015 tightening schedule, markets appear more keenly focussed on improving US data. This focus should be considered ahead of Fed Chair Yellen’s likely cautious testimony this week. We remain short EUR/USD and look to sell into any tentative rallies.
Beyond the core we continue to favour GBP as an ‘unlikely safe haven’ benefiting from Eurozone concerns. Recently solid UK data has added further support to our short EUR/GBP position. (for more on CA's GBP view, see here)
What we’re watching:
XAU/USD – notwithstanding the latest Greece concession the precious metal remains a good litmus test of contagion fears. Gold led the more sanguine sentiment outcome last week, but can it move lower still in the week ahead?
Yellen Testimony – ongoing improvements in US data conflicts with the Fed’s still cautious message. The Senate Banking Committee could provide the venue for the Chairwoman to begin to temper the language. (for preview of next week US calendar, see here)
China Flash PMI – since its peak in July 2014 the trend has been down. Another soft reading this week will lend further support to the recent RBA easing and maintain pressure on AUD.
Riksbank Minutes – policy maker conversation surrounding the move to negative rates (their seventh easing in the cycle) could pressure SEK. Given supportive Fed rate expectations we favour further USD/SEK upside.
Greek solvency problems may have been postponed, but its liquidity concerns remain intact. Uncertainty surrounding peripheral Europe will continue and investor outflows persist – albeit at a slower pace than in previous weeks.
Moreover, while latest FOMC Minutes appeared to defer the Fed’s 2015 tightening schedule, markets appear more keenly focussed on improving US data. This focus should be considered ahead of Fed Chair Yellen’s likely cautious testimony this week. We remain short EUR/USD and look to sell into any tentative rallies.
Beyond the core we continue to favour GBP as an ‘unlikely safe haven’ benefiting from Eurozone concerns. Recently solid UK data has added further support to our short EUR/GBP position. (for more on CA's GBP view, see here)
What we’re watching:
XAU/USD – notwithstanding the latest Greece concession the precious metal remains a good litmus test of contagion fears. Gold led the more sanguine sentiment outcome last week, but can it move lower still in the week ahead?
Yellen Testimony – ongoing improvements in US data conflicts with the Fed’s still cautious message. The Senate Banking Committee could provide the venue for the Chairwoman to begin to temper the language. (for preview of next week US calendar, see here)
China Flash PMI – since its peak in July 2014 the trend has been down. Another soft reading this week will lend further support to the recent RBA easing and maintain pressure on AUD.
Riksbank Minutes – policy maker conversation surrounding the move to negative rates (their seventh easing in the cycle) could pressure SEK. Given supportive Fed rate expectations we favour further USD/SEK upside.
Week Ahead: Yellen Testimony, China PMI, Sell EUR Rallies, Buy GBP
Inscription à :
Publier les commentaires (Atom)
0 commentaires:
Enregistrer un commentaire