samedi 7 février 2015
US Preview: The Ball Is Back in Consumers' Court
Posted on 22:37 by nice news
With the US economy awash in an additional 3 million jobs, consumers shopping habits should clearly be improving, yet next week's retail data will likely show the first back-to-back monthly drops in sales in over three years.
The market is betting on a 0.4% decline in headline sales in January, an extension of what had already been the sharpest plunge in nearly a year seen in December.
However, this will for the most part be a reflection of the pressure on gasoline stations' receipts due to the tumbling oil prices.
The Department of Commerce in Washington will release the retail sales figures on Thursday at 8:30am local time.
"Gasoline prices have plunged and the seasonal factors make the decline appear even worse in January. Auto sales were also little changed, suggesting no boost from spending in that sector," analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note. They are expecting to see a sharper 0.6% decline for the headline.
Light vehicle sales slipped to an annual rate of 16.6 million in January from 16.8 million a month earlier.
Other than that, the data should be encouraging with the key control group sales expected to rebound by a solid 0.5%.
Furthermore, as economists at Deutsche Bank point out, while retail sales gains have slowed, consumer spending in general has firmed.
"Last quarter, overall real consumption- retail sales account for only about one quarter of total spending - increased at a 4.3% annualized pace," Deutsche said.
Although some of the rise in total household spending is attributable to the drop in energy costs, most is the result of the rampant increase in hiring over the past year that should continue to underpin consumer moods.
The University of Michigan preliminary February report should repeat the 98.1 print seen in January - the highest in 11 years.
The labor
The market is betting on a 0.4% decline in headline sales in January, an extension of what had already been the sharpest plunge in nearly a year seen in December.
However, this will for the most part be a reflection of the pressure on gasoline stations' receipts due to the tumbling oil prices.
The Department of Commerce in Washington will release the retail sales figures on Thursday at 8:30am local time.
"Gasoline prices have plunged and the seasonal factors make the decline appear even worse in January. Auto sales were also little changed, suggesting no boost from spending in that sector," analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note. They are expecting to see a sharper 0.6% decline for the headline.
Light vehicle sales slipped to an annual rate of 16.6 million in January from 16.8 million a month earlier.
Other than that, the data should be encouraging with the key control group sales expected to rebound by a solid 0.5%.
Furthermore, as economists at Deutsche Bank point out, while retail sales gains have slowed, consumer spending in general has firmed.
"Last quarter, overall real consumption- retail sales account for only about one quarter of total spending - increased at a 4.3% annualized pace," Deutsche said.
Although some of the rise in total household spending is attributable to the drop in energy costs, most is the result of the rampant increase in hiring over the past year that should continue to underpin consumer moods.
The University of Michigan preliminary February report should repeat the 98.1 print seen in January - the highest in 11 years.
The labor
US Preview: The Ball Is Back in Consumers' Court
Categories: US Preview: The Ball Is Back in Consumers Court
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