jeudi 5 février 2015
EUR/USD: Trading the US Non-Farm Payrolls
Posted on 07:21 by nice news
US Nonfarm Employment Change measures the change in the number of newly employed people in the US, excluding workers in the farming industry. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar. Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.
Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. The release of US Non-Farm Employment Change is highly anticipated by the markets, and an unexpected reading can affect the direction of EUR/USD.
Nonfarm Employment Change ended 2014 on a weak note, as the December report fell sharply to 252 thousand. This was down from 321 thousand a month earlier. The markets are braced for another drop in the January release, with an estimate of 236 thousand.
Sentiment and Levels
The outlook for the euro continues to remains weak and the pair has more room before bottoming out (with some talking about parity or below), but the US could continue with its break in rises. The Fed was upbeat about the US economy, but GDP missed expectations. In the euro-zone, deflation has deepened and this has hit Germany, the region’s locomotive. This has justified the massive QE move by Draghi and the general pressure on the euro. So, the overall sentiment is neutral on EUR/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.1650, 1.1540, 1.15, 1.1373, 1.1313, and 1.12.
5 Scenarios
Within expectations: 233K to 239K. In such a scenario, the EUR/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
Above expectations: 239K to 244K: An unexpected higher reading could send the pair below one support line.
Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. The release of US Non-Farm Employment Change is highly anticipated by the markets, and an unexpected reading can affect the direction of EUR/USD.
Nonfarm Employment Change ended 2014 on a weak note, as the December report fell sharply to 252 thousand. This was down from 321 thousand a month earlier. The markets are braced for another drop in the January release, with an estimate of 236 thousand.
Sentiment and Levels
The outlook for the euro continues to remains weak and the pair has more room before bottoming out (with some talking about parity or below), but the US could continue with its break in rises. The Fed was upbeat about the US economy, but GDP missed expectations. In the euro-zone, deflation has deepened and this has hit Germany, the region’s locomotive. This has justified the massive QE move by Draghi and the general pressure on the euro. So, the overall sentiment is neutral on EUR/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.1650, 1.1540, 1.15, 1.1373, 1.1313, and 1.12.
5 Scenarios
Within expectations: 233K to 239K. In such a scenario, the EUR/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
Above expectations: 239K to 244K: An unexpected higher reading could send the pair below one support line.
EUR/USD: Trading the US Non-Farm Payrolls
Categories: EUR/USD: Trading the US Non-Farm Payrolls
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