samedi 7 février 2015
EU Preview: BoE Inflation Soup and Euro Zone Q4 GDP Mix
Posted on 18:08 by nice news
The Bank of England (BoE) will publish its Quarterly Inflation Report on Thursday, while Governor Mark Carney will answer reporters' questions on the bank’s latest forecasts for growth and inflation at a press conference.
The BoE kept its key interest rate at a record-low 0.5% on February 5. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes from January indicated that revisions to both the near and medium-term inflation outlook can be expected within the new forecasts. Given the BoE's primary remit of guarding over consumer prices, the revisions to the inflation outlook should offer hints at the central bank's future path of interest rates.
At the January MPC meeting, policymakers saw more risk to near-term inflation on the downside, saying cheaper oil and lower import prices may persist for longer than had been expected.
Second, the MPC argued, the sharply falling market interest rates passing through to lower fixed-rate mortgages should result in a demand surge in 2015, were the BoE base interest rate to follow market expectations. Third, the early signs of pick-up in average weekly earnings in the private sector may suggest slack in the labor market has been diminishing faster, or that the level of slack is lower than estimated.
BoE Inflation Report
"While the Bank of England will undoubtedly cut its near-term inflation forecasts appreciably, if it forecasts that inflation could bounce back more quickly further out (for example due to lower near-term inflation stimulating consumer spending) that would imply that interest rates may need to rise before the end of this year," Howard Archer, chief UK & European Economist at IHS Global Insight, wrote in a note to clients.
"However, if the Bank of England sees consumer price inflation around 2.0% on a two-year horizon and then stabilizing around that level, it will suggest that
The BoE kept its key interest rate at a record-low 0.5% on February 5. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes from January indicated that revisions to both the near and medium-term inflation outlook can be expected within the new forecasts. Given the BoE's primary remit of guarding over consumer prices, the revisions to the inflation outlook should offer hints at the central bank's future path of interest rates.
At the January MPC meeting, policymakers saw more risk to near-term inflation on the downside, saying cheaper oil and lower import prices may persist for longer than had been expected.
Second, the MPC argued, the sharply falling market interest rates passing through to lower fixed-rate mortgages should result in a demand surge in 2015, were the BoE base interest rate to follow market expectations. Third, the early signs of pick-up in average weekly earnings in the private sector may suggest slack in the labor market has been diminishing faster, or that the level of slack is lower than estimated.
BoE Inflation Report
"While the Bank of England will undoubtedly cut its near-term inflation forecasts appreciably, if it forecasts that inflation could bounce back more quickly further out (for example due to lower near-term inflation stimulating consumer spending) that would imply that interest rates may need to rise before the end of this year," Howard Archer, chief UK & European Economist at IHS Global Insight, wrote in a note to clients.
"However, if the Bank of England sees consumer price inflation around 2.0% on a two-year horizon and then stabilizing around that level, it will suggest that
EU Preview: BoE Inflation Soup and Euro Zone Q4 GDP Mix
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