samedi 3 janvier 2015
US Week Ahead: NFP, FOMC Minutes, ISM, Trade Balance, Factory Orders
Posted on 07:51 by nice news
We look for a 0.7% rise in November factory orders given an expected increase in durables goods orders and a decline in nondurables orders. November factory orders likely rose 0.7% with an expected rise in durable goods orders offsetting a decline in nondurable goods orders. We expect a 2.4% rise in durable goods orders led by broad-based increases across transportation and ex-transportation sectors. Orders for nondurable goods likely fell on lower oil and ex-oil commodity prices. Both crude oil prices and commodity price indexes declined on a seasonally adjusted basis in November at a similar pace to the previous month. We look for a 0.7% overall rise, reversing the October decline.
We see a slight uptick to 59.6 in the December ISM non-manufacturing index, but will confirm this estimate when additional data is released. We look for an uptick to 59.6 in the December ISM non-manufacturing index. In the previous month, the non-manufacturing activity gauge posted a strong advance to 59.3 – almost a post-recession high. Having fallen from postcrisis highs in the summer months, the new orders component likely continued to rise back towards these levels. The employment component also likely bounced back from its previous drop. However, we note that the decline in the preliminary US Markit services PMI points to some downside risk. We will await regional service-sector survey data for December to confirm our projection.
We expect a narrowing in the international trade deficit to USD42.6bn in November from USD43.4bn in the previous month. The trade deficit likely narrowed to USD42.6bn in November on reversals in imports and exports. Exports likely declined as suggested by USD appreciation over the past few months as well as lower export prices. In particular we look for declines in industrial supplies and materials exports and ex-auto capital goods exports due to declining energy prices. Imports likely posted
We see a slight uptick to 59.6 in the December ISM non-manufacturing index, but will confirm this estimate when additional data is released. We look for an uptick to 59.6 in the December ISM non-manufacturing index. In the previous month, the non-manufacturing activity gauge posted a strong advance to 59.3 – almost a post-recession high. Having fallen from postcrisis highs in the summer months, the new orders component likely continued to rise back towards these levels. The employment component also likely bounced back from its previous drop. However, we note that the decline in the preliminary US Markit services PMI points to some downside risk. We will await regional service-sector survey data for December to confirm our projection.
We expect a narrowing in the international trade deficit to USD42.6bn in November from USD43.4bn in the previous month. The trade deficit likely narrowed to USD42.6bn in November on reversals in imports and exports. Exports likely declined as suggested by USD appreciation over the past few months as well as lower export prices. In particular we look for declines in industrial supplies and materials exports and ex-auto capital goods exports due to declining energy prices. Imports likely posted
US Week Ahead: NFP, FOMC Minutes, ISM, Trade Balance, Factory Orders
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