dimanche 11 janvier 2015
This Guy Called Bonds in ’14. You Listening This Time?
Posted on 21:48 by nice news
Steven Major did something weird in 2014: he got the bond market right.
When most experts said sell, Major said buy. And he’s defying the consensus again this year.
Wall Street, as a whole, is still pointing the other way -- but then, Wall Street, as a whole, blew it last year.
Major, the London-based head of fixed-income research at HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA), stood out for correctly predicting that 10-year Treasury yields would drop to about 2.1 percent. Others said yields would approach 4 percent.
“Some investors thought we were completely bonkers,” Major, 50, said of his 2014 call.
Now, Major says yields will keep falling, possibly as low as 1.5 percent, before turning up to end the year at 2.5 percent. Wall Street sees the market headed for a big selloff as the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates. The median estimate of 74 forecasters in a Bloomberg survey is for 3.01 percent by year-end.
Major dismisses concerns about the Fed. Instead, he sees parallels between the weak global economy in the years immediately after World War II and the state of things today. Back then, slow growth pinned Treasury yields below 2.5 percent.
“I’m sure he will have even bigger following” after last year’s ca
When most experts said sell, Major said buy. And he’s defying the consensus again this year.
Wall Street, as a whole, is still pointing the other way -- but then, Wall Street, as a whole, blew it last year.
Major, the London-based head of fixed-income research at HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA), stood out for correctly predicting that 10-year Treasury yields would drop to about 2.1 percent. Others said yields would approach 4 percent.
“Some investors thought we were completely bonkers,” Major, 50, said of his 2014 call.
Now, Major says yields will keep falling, possibly as low as 1.5 percent, before turning up to end the year at 2.5 percent. Wall Street sees the market headed for a big selloff as the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates. The median estimate of 74 forecasters in a Bloomberg survey is for 3.01 percent by year-end.
Major dismisses concerns about the Fed. Instead, he sees parallels between the weak global economy in the years immediately after World War II and the state of things today. Back then, slow growth pinned Treasury yields below 2.5 percent.
“I’m sure he will have even bigger following” after last year’s ca
This Guy Called Bonds in ’14. You Listening This Time?
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